MARKET REPORT – NOV. 28TH, 2018
A LITTLE MID-WEEK NEWS UPDATE
Romaine Warning Cancelled. Nearly. Health officials have determined that all cases of E.Coli likely came from Romaine lettuce harvested in Coastal California growing regions. No other region of California was producing and shipping Romaine at the time. All warnings have ended for Romaine grown in Imperial, Coachella, San Joaquin, Yuma, Mexico, and greenhouse / living lettuce. Warnings continue for Romaine shipping from Salinas. Most shippers operating in Salinas have packed up shop for the winter anyhow and those with crop in the field aren’t packing or shipping, just tilling I’d imagine.
MARKET PRICING ON GREEN / WET VEG ETC.
While prices generally are higher during transition and up to Thanksgiving, historically markets have dropped by late November – that’s what’s happened for the last few years. Not so this year, and the weather is to blame! Here is the latest produce industry notice for all growing regions. Don’t fall off your chair when you see pricing over the next 10 days. This is market driven – growers tossing out prices on some product hoping they will stick – it’s so rare they get a chance to rub their hands together in glee and make some good coin. Expect prices to level out at some point soon on key green veg but also expect prices on tomatoes, zucchini, cukes to continue to climb until growing temps improve. Product grown in greenhouses isn’t affected, but most of these are grown in shade-houses in northern Mexico – structures intended to keep heat out during the day and no way to keep anything warmer at night.
SALINAS / SANTA MARIA
Rain and cold is coming to the central coast of CA this week.
Starting today the Salinas and Santa Maria growing areas will have a high probability of rain over the next three days. Both regions are expecting a total of 1.5″. Along with this rain will come a blast of cold air that will take minimum temps down in the low 40s starting this Thursday and into the upper 30s from Sunday through at least Wednesday of next week. These regions are already on their way out for the season with many crops. This rain and cold weather might slow down the production even more.
Desert growing regions will also experience below average temps over the next ten days.
The average temps for the Coachella Valley this time of year are a high of 82° and a low of 54°. Currently the minimum temps are in the mid 40°s with highs in the upper 70°s. On Thursday, the same cold front affecting Salinas will make its way through the Coachella Valley. Starting this Friday expect the maximum temps to be in the low 70°s and by next Monday to only be in the mid 60°s. On Friday minimum temps will also begin to drop and by Monday they will be in the 30°s and will stay there at least through next Wednesday.
Yuma will follow the same pattern of cooling with temps beginning to drop starting this Friday with the maximum only reaching 71° and the minimum dipping into the 40°s. By next Tuesday Dec 4 Yuma will see a maximum temp of 63°and a minimum of 42°. This is about 20° below normal for this time of year. Let’s see how much production will be affected by these temps.
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
The SJV will also see rain and cold temps later this week and into next.
The Fresno area is expecting 1.5″ of total rain between tomorrow and Thursday. Starting Thursday the temps will begin to drop. Thursday will see a minimum of 45° and by Sunday Dec 2 the minimum will be 35° and the maximum will only be 53°. Bakersfield will be a few degrees warmer than Fresno. These cold temps will continue all through next week. Grapes still coming out of these areas.
Parts of Mexico continue to be unseasonably cool.
Culiacan, Sinaloa which is the region everyone is waiting for to see some relief in the tomato market continues to have temps well below normal for this time of the year. The average temps in Culiacan for November are 94°/68°. Culiacan is now entering its second week with minimum temps in the 50s and highs in the mid to upper 80°s. This Saturday the minimum temps will drop down to 54° and on Tuesday, Dec 4 the minimum temp will only be 52°. These low temps will continue all next week. Not sure how drastically these temps will affect production but I wouldn’t expect relief as quickly as hoped.
The state of Sonora will also see unusually low temps starting this Friday through next week with maximums in the mid 70°s and minimums in the upper 40°s. These temps are about 15° below normal.
Guanajuato and Queretaro (El Bajio) regions will see rain and cold weather over the next ten days. This region is expecting up to 1″ of rain between tomorrow and Thursday with minimum temps in the mid to low 40°s over the next ten days.
The berry and avocado growing regions of Michoacán will see at least 1″ of rain tomorrow and minimum temps in the 40°s over the next ten days.
Baja CA will continue with normal temps over the next ten days.
OF COURSE: What goes up, must come down – once this cold spell is done, crops will do a catch-up and the market, in theory, will be over-loaded and prices will come tumbling down hopefully in time for Christmas.